Normally, betting one of the previous year’s participants in the Super Bowl would seem to be a pretty square play. Calls for a Super Bowl repeat are common as it can be expected that those two teams would field good lineups again and there is rarely any turnover in the coaching ranks. This season is an outlier, though, as the LA Rams and Cincinnati Bengals find themselves at 12-1 and 22-1 respectively to win this year’s big game.
While we think both teams will make a return trip to the playoffs, we feel there is more value on Cincinnati at 22-1.
You will hear us talk about “value” on these pages quite a bit. When discussing the future markets, in this case, we aren’t saying that we think Cincinnati is likely to win Super Bowl 57. In fact, we agree with the market that Buffalo, considered the favorite at 6-1 is more likely to take the trophy home than are the Bengals. What we don’t believe, however, is that Buffalo is 3.5 times more likely to win it than Cincinnati – which is what the market would lead us to believe as the odds are today.
We feel that Cincinnati’s odds should be closer to those of the Rams – in the 12 to 14 to one range. At 22-1, we are confident that we are getting great value on the Bengals. If you put $100 on the Bengals now, you’ll feel good about holding a ticket worth $2300 when the playoffs come around. Earlier, we took the Bengals to be one of the teams to exceed their season win total, and we will double down on that bet by taking the Bengals to return to the Super Bowl, and this time win it at a very enticing 22-1 price.