Tulane vs. Kansas State — Under 48
Last week, we played the Kansas State vs Mizzou game to go under the total of 55. The Wildcats controlled the game and held Missouri to 222 yards of offense in a game that slipped under the total. We’ll go back to the well with Kansas State this week for another under. The Tulane Green Wave come to town, and despite playing less than stellar competition in bottom feeder UMass and FCS middler Alcorn State, the Wave is playing some serious defense to date. Tulane has only given up 66 yards combined passing on 25 total attempts in two games. Alcorn State was only able to muster 4 first downs against the Wave. We don’t expect those kinds of numbers against Kansas State, but clearly, they are an improved unit.
A key factor we look for in playing totals is pace. In this regard, K State is a friend of the under. They play at the 6th slowest pace of 131 FBS schools. Further, in their victory over Missouri, they ran the ball twice as much as they passed. They don’t mind getting a lead and taking the air out of the ball. Lastly, we are looking at 15-20 mph winds in Kansas on Saturday. That may not be enough to lift a house off the ground and land it on an evil witch in technicolor, but it might be enough to throw a wrench into the two passing attacks.
The wizard of odds says to play the under 48, a number our friends at BetOnline are currently dealing.
Miami Hurricanes (+5.5) vs. Texas A&M
The wrong team is favored in College Station. A quick look at ESPN’s FPI power ratings, we see the Canes rated at 13.8 and A&M with a 9.1 after a serious downgrade in the wake of their loss to Appalachian St. Give the Aggies two or three for home field and we still have a slight advantage to Miami. We think the 5 and hook is a gift here and we’re taking it now.
Anyone who thinks the Mountaineer win was a fluke didn’t watch the game – and I invite them to take a look at the box score. Texas A&M had less than 100 yards rushing… and less than 100 passing. Of their two touchdowns, one was scored on a kickoff return, meaning they had more return yards than passing yards. That ain’t good.
Miami brings a very talented squad into College Station, led by future NFL’er QB Tyler Van Dyke. They come in at 2-0 with wins over inferior opponents in Bethune Cookman and Southern Miss. This is a big opportunity for Mario Cristobal and the ‘Canes to show that they are a player in the ACC and back on their way to national prominence. We’ll take the points but we are calling for the outright upset here.
Grab 5 and a half at Bovada right now, and consider a few bones on the moneyline at +175.