Baylor (+2.5) vs. Iowa State
The wrong team is favored in this Big 12 matchup. A quick glance at ESPN’s FPI power rankings shows Baylor with a 14.4 while Iowa St. Comes in with a 10.2. Even giving the Cyclones a couple of points for home field, Baylor should be the slight chalk here. Baylor will dominate the trenches in Ames on Saturday. Phil Steele ranked both the offensive and D lines in the top ten in the country. In the Bears’ overtime loss to BYU, they shut down a potent Cougars running attack. Their front seven is loaded and will put pressure on Iowa State’s backfield all day. Iowa state was decimated by graduation, and it has gone from one of the most experienced teams in ‘21 – returning 20 starters – to one of the youngest teams in returning only 8 starters in ‘22. Linesmakers are giving them credit for their win against instate rival Iowa, but maybe they shouldn’t. You and the first 10 people that show up for Thanksgiving could force the Hawkeye offense to punt. Baylor is too strong for this Cyclone team. This line has been going back and forth from 2.5 to 3. Try to grab it at 3 if you can, but we don’t think we’ll need the points. Play this one with our friends at BetUS.
Southern Miss vs Tulane — Under 49
Tulane is quietly playing some of the best defense in the country. A team that gave up over 30 points per game in ‘21 is number six nationally in yardage allowed at 220 per game. Last week we played the under in the Green Wave’s 17-10 upset victory in Manhattan, KS, a game that never threatened the total. In that game the Wave held Adrian Martinez to 150 yards passing and All-American RB Deuce Vaughn to 82 on the ground. This week Tulane comes home to play a Southern Miss team without the same caliber of offensive weapons. Moreover, the Eagles want to keep the ball on the ground, as evidenced by their overtime loss to Liberty in week one, when they ran the ball 54 times and only passed 14. Both teams’ offenses rank in the bottom half of the country in tempo. All of this is a recipe for a fourth straight under to open the season in Tulane games. We will ride that “Wave” until the linesmakers adjust. Bookmaker is offering a 49 in this one and we advise jumping on that generous number.
Florida vs Tennessee — Over 62.5
Under head coach Josh Heupel, the Tennessee Volunteers are just a really fun team to watch. They run their offense at a break-neck pace and they have a dynamic QB in Hendon Hooker. In ‘21, the Vol’s offense averaged nearly 40 points a game – and they played Georgia and Alabama. Overs in their games have cashed in 8 of the last 9. While the Gators don’t have the same explosiveness through the air, (don’t get me started on how overrated Anthony Richardson is) their running game is formidable, and Richardson definitely has some wheels. The key to this pick is the pace of the Tennessee offense. They will run tempo the whole game, and their possessions won’t last long. Because of that, both teams will get at least a couple of more possessions than they normally would, and both are equipped to take advantage. The Gators should be able to run against a Tennessee rush D that is the liability of the team. Grab this one at BetOnline before it hits 63, which we think it will, and sit back and enjoy what should be one of the better games of the day.
