49ers vs. Broncos — Under 45

The Niners and the Broncos face off in Mile High and we think that points will be at a premium.  San Francisco hosted Seattle last week and walked out with a 27-7 win.  Incidentally, the touchdown scored by the ‘Hawks was a blocked FG returned for a TD.  Meanwhile, the Broncos’ red zone struggles continued as they settled for 3 FGs en route to a 16-9 win over the Texans.  In Russell Wilson’s first home start, the fans booed as the Broncos and Wilson couldn’t cross the goal line.  Wilson finished 14-31 passing for 219 yards.  We see this game as being a slugfest, dominated by two talented, salty defenses.  We don’t see Garoppolo or Wilson having the time to push the ball downfield, and we expect the clock to keep moving with a lot of running and check-down passing.  Both of these teams will be comfortable in a conservative, lower-scoring game.  Let’s grab this 45 now.  We don’t think it will be available at kickoff and we are already seeing 44.5’s in the market.  You can currently get a 45 at BetOnline.

Texans (+3) vs. Bears

In our opinion, there isn’t an NFL team that the Bears should be giving a field goal to.  Give ‘em credit for the victory in the monsoon over the 49ers, but that win is misleading.  We saw the “real” Bears in their loss to Green Bay on Sunday night.  Justin Fields has a bright future ahead of him, but for now, his offensive line isn’t going to allow him to make the kinds of plays we saw him make when he was slinging the rock for Ohio State.  The Texans, behind underrated signal caller David Mills, look like they have taken some big strides forward under coach Lovie Smith.  They opened the season with a tie against the Colts and took the Broncos to the wire last week.  We have the Texans power rated a couple of points higher than the Bears and we don’t give the Bears a particularly big home field advantage, so we feel this line should be a pick’em.  Getting 3 in a coin flip game means that we snatch up the free field goal.  This line is Bears –2.5 in most places, but we see a 3 right now at Bookmaker.  We’re grabbing it and we hope you do the same.


Saints vs. Panthers — Under 40.5

We like to play totals and there are some teams that you have to consider “over” teams (e.g. the Detroit Lions) and there are others that are clear “under” teams.  Under teams play stingy defense and they prefer to run the ball – and when they throw, they prefer underneath passes as opposed to pushing it downfield.  The Saints and Panthers qualify as under teams.  The Saints lost to the Bucs last week 20-10 in a contest that had a misleadingly high score.  The game was 3-3 with 8 minutes left before Tom Brady and the Bucs broke through with the game’s first touchdown.  For the Saints, it’s tough to put points up when you turn the ball over five times.  Yeesh.  The Panthers went on the road to take on the Giants and they proved their chops as an “under” team as well.  In an ugly game, Baker Mayfield was held to under 50% completion percentage on his way to throwing for less than 150 yards.  On the other side of the ball, the Panther D held the Giants to 265 yards of total offense.  We’ve played a lot of unders so far this season, and we’re not shy about playing another here.  40.5 can be found across the market, including with our friends at BetUS.

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