Lions vs. Patriots — over 45.5 (2 units)
The Detroit Lions are simply the best “over” team in the NFL. All four of their games have gone over the total, with their lowest-scoring game – against the Vikings – reaching a total of 52. Their other games have hit 93, 63, and 73 total points. Their offense is pushing the ball down the field and producing big plays, while their defense looks like they are playing with seven guys. The Patriots started the season with two low-scoring affairs but their last two have produced 51 and 63 against the Packers and Ravens, respectively. Pop quiz – Who is the season passing yardage record holder in FBS football? Buy yourself a Coke if you said Bailey Zappe, the likely rookie starter for the Patriots this week. The fact that the Pats are down to their 3rd stringer is the reason this total is staying down, but don’t be fooled – young Zappe is a gunslinger. We think he is going to light up a miserable Detroit secondary. Our friends at BetOnline have posted a 45.5 and we are jumping on it now, as 46s are prevalent in the market.
Eagles –5 vs. Cardinals (2 units)
It’s not too often we’ll lay more than a field goal on the road in the NFL, but we’ll make an exception with the Eagles in this spot. The Eagles fell behind a sneaky tough Jags team last week 14-0, only to score 29 unanswered points en route to their 3rd consecutive cover. They finished with nearly twice the first downs and twice the yardage as the scrappy Jaguars. The Cardinals are 2-2, having lost both of their home games. This Arizona offense clearly isn’t the same without DeAndre Hopkins, one of the NFL’s top wideouts, who isn’t eligible to come back until Week 9. Kyler Murray has been under constant pressure this season and that won’t change against Philly. If the Eagles keep playing at an elite level, the days of betting them under a touchdown will be a thing of the past. We’ll lay the moderate number here against a Cardinal team without much of a home-field advantage. You can play this at BetUS.
Colts vs. Broncos — under 42 (2 units)
On Thursday Night Football, we will be rooting for 3-yard running plays and missed field goals – we’ll be pulling for the under. The Colts should do their part as they have played in nine straight unders going back to last season, with none of those games going higher than a combined 44 points. Matt Ryan’s arm isn’t what it was and if he were to run a 40-yard dash, you could time it with a calendar. The fact that Pro Bowl RB Johnathon Taylor has been ruled out for the tilt with Denver is added to their offensive doldrums. The Broncos also lost their top RB Javonte Williams to a season-ending knee injury and will have to do so with Melvin Gordon and Mike Boone. Russell Wilson’s start with the Broncos has been inauspicious as the team has struggled mightily in the red zone. They won’t catch a break on a short week going against a feisty Colts D. In a game that features 2 of the 3 worst scoring teams in the league, we’re happy to pull for long punts in the thin Mile High air. Grab under 42 at Bovada.