Leonard Fournette (Buccaneers) OVER 41.5 rushing yards (-115)
Fournette appears to have retaken the lead role in Buccaneers’ backfield, just in time for “Playoff Lenny” to finally shine for his fans and us bettors. In the Bucs’ OT win last week against the Arizona Cardinals, the veteran RB out-snapped rookie Rachaad White 49-29 and out-carried him 20-7 on his way to a 72 rushing yard performance. Fournette now has 30 total carries for 116 yards over the past two weeks, while White has amassed under 40 ground yards in three of Tampa Bay’s previous four games. In four career games against Carolina, Lenny has averaged over 62 rushing yards per game. The Panthers also rank among the bottom half of the league in terms of yards allowed per game (12th most) . “Playoff Lenny” mode has been activated, so we’ll be riding strong with the veteran RB and taking his over 41.5 rushing yards prop at BetOnline.
George Kittle (49ers) OVER 44.5 Receiving Prop (-114)
George Kittle has been absolutely rolling lately and has cruised over this 44.5 receiving yards mark in his last 2 games, part of that has to do with the absence of All-Pro WR Deebo Samuel in the lineup. No Deebo meant that other playmakers in this electric offense had to step up… and Kittle has done just that! He also seems to have an incredible connection with rookie QB Brock Purdy that is only going to get better and better with more reps. Kittle has back-to-back games of 90+ yards and against this dreadful Raiders secondary that allows the 7th most yards in the league, he has a great chance to have a big game yet again. You can bet alongside us as we take George Kittle’s over 44.5 receiving yards at MyBookie.
Justin Herbert (Chargers) UNDER 1.5 passing TDs (+160)
It feels absolutely wild to be betting against a strong Herbert performance in the Chargers’ penultimate regular-season game, especially against a Rams squad five games under .500… but he’s been low-key pretty bad in recent games, registering zero TDs over the past two weeks and a total of two TDs over the past four. Not to mention, he has yet to throw multiple TDs in a game since Thanksgiving weekend and has one TD or fewer in a whopping nine of the Chargers’ 15 total games so far. Also not helping matters is a Rams secondary that have also been exceptionally good against the pass over the past few weeks, allowing just 187.6 passing yards per game and two total TDs in that span. The value is too good to pass up here, so let’s grab Herbert’s under 1.5 passing TDs prop at BetUS.
Zack Moss (Colts) OVER 58.5 rushing yards (-115)
Since losing Jonathan Taylor to a season-ending ankle injury, Moss has taken over the leading role in the Colts’ backfield and has been serviceable to say the least, averaging 18 carries and 73 yards per game across the last two contests. With serious question marks at the QB position, it only makes sense that Indianapolis will lean heavily on the run game against a New York Giants defense that is allowing the second-most yards per carry (5.66) to opposing running backs this season. We currently see BetUS as carrying the best line on this rushing yard prop at over 58.5, so hop on that number right now before it inevitably moves to 60+.
Geno Smith (Seahawks) OVER 0.5 interceptions (+135)
Geno Smith’s play has taken a notable dip over the past six games, a stretch in which the Seahawks have gone 1-5 to fall to the edge of the NFC Wild Card race. Smith has thrown five interceptions in those six contests and has had other turnover-worthy plays to go along with them. Smith was one of the NFL’s bigger surprises in the first half of the season, but has looked more like the journeyman most expected to see from the get-go in the season’s second half. He certainly could turn things around, but a matchup with the Jets defense is a difficult spot to do it. Take the plus money value (+135) at BetUS for Geno Smith to throw at least one INT against his former squad and team that first drafted him back in 2013.
Baker Mayfield (Rams) UNDER 197.5 passing yards (-115)
It’s the battle of LA this Sunday at SoFi Stadium with the Chargers expected to be leading throughout the contest. That would provide a favorable game script for Mayfield to throw, and he’s coming off an efficient performance (24-for-28, 230 yards, 2 TD, 124.7 rating) in a total cakewalk over the Broncos at home last week. The Chargers have improved dramatically against the run and still gave up 143 passing yards to Nick Foles on Monday night despite the veteran’s horrific struggles through three quarters. Mayfield has basically only played in one legitimate home game under Sean McVay with a full slate of time to prepare, and he pulled off a miracle in his first appearance against the Raiders after flying in just two days before that TNF matchup. We think Baker finally comes back down to earth this week and thus, we’ll be betting his passing yards prop to go under the 197.5 line where it currently sits at BetUS.
Gardner Minshew (Eagles) OVER 236.5 passing yards (-115)
Jalen Hurts was listed as doubtful on the Eagles’ injury report… which means, for all intents and purposes, that Gardner Minshew is expected to receive the keys to Philly’s offense for another week. In Week 16, he played extremely well against their division rival Dallas Cowboys (24 completions on 40 attempts, 355 yards passing, and three total touchdowns). With another healthy dose of live game reps under his belt, we expect another nice showing versus what will most likely be an undermanned New Orleans Saints squad. With “Minshew Mania” in full effect, 237+ passing yards appears to be a relatively easy ask, so we’ll be grabbing this line at near even odds with MyBookie.
Tyler Allgeier (Falcons) OVER 74.5 rushing yards (-115)
The rookie out of BYU has started to emerge as a sturdy and durable lead back for the Atlanta Falcons late in the season. In Week 15, Allgeier rushed for 139 yards on 17 carries and a TD, and in Week 16, he rushed for 74 yards on 18 carries against Baltimore’s third-ranked run defense. Overall, he’s averaging 75 yards per game and 5.9 yards per carry in his last five appearances and now boasts the 10th-best rushing average in the NFL this season at 4.9 yards per attempt. Not to mention that Arizona ranks 22nd in rushing yards allowed to running backs over the past four weeks and its defense should spend a majority of time on the field because of ongoing QB issues. We’ll be grabbing Allgeier’s over 74.5 rushing yards prop bet at Bovada.
Kirk Cousins (Vikings) OVER 265.5 passing yards (-104)
“Captain” Kirk Cousins and the Minnesota Vikings have been relying heavily on their passing attack to carry them to victories this season… and in particular the last three games where they’ve seen 85% of their offensive yardage come through the air as opposed to on the ground. Cousins is averaging 395 passing yards per game during that time, and the team as a whole is managing just 66 rushing yards per game. We expect this to be the case against the Packers, given that Green Bay is 3.5-point home favorites over a division rival with five more wins on their schedule this year. The Vikings could be playing from behind in this one, and that bodes well for Cousins’ stat line. Garbage time is his time, and we like Cousins to approach 300+ yards passing again this week, so grab this line with us at BetOnline and ‘Getcha Popcorn Ready’.
Josh Allen (Bills) OVER 258.5 passing yards (-114)
Everything about this game tells us to absolutely SMASH Josh Allen’s over, starting with the 49.5-point projected total. The Bengals have been strong against the run lately, giving up the seventh-fewest rushing yards on the season and under 72 total ground yards in three of their past five games. Most importantly, Cincinnati has allowed 267 passing yards per game over the past three weeks. So, if Allen wants to keep Buffalo atop the AFC — and keep himself in the running for the league’s highest individual award honors — then he’ll undoubtedly have to show out against the defending AFC champions. In maybe his final prime-time game of the regular season, we are betting he will and taking his over 258.5 passing yards prop at BetOnline.
