This should be one of the better NFL Championship Weekends in recent memory, as both games are virtual tossups, and you could make an argument for any of the four participants to win Super Bowl 56. We’ll be posting free picks on sides, totals, props et al so please keep checking back to find out who we’re backing on Sunday. Our VIP players have already gotten our big five-unit release for the weekend, but it’s not too late to sign up and get access to the five-unit play and several other 3 and four-unit releases for Championship Sunday.
For our first free play release, we will go to Philadelphia for a marquee matchup between the 49ers and Eagles. The Eagles are a consensus 2.5-point favorite with the total settling in at 46.5. Both teams earned their way into the NFC Championship behind elite defensive performances in the Divisional round. The Eagles held the Giants to seven points on 13 first downs and only 109 yards passing from Daniel Jones. San Francisco’s defense also rose to the occasion picking off Dak Prescott twice and only allowing the Cowboys to find the end zone once. On the season, both teams allowed just over 300 yards per game en route to being the top two defensive teams in the league (by yardage allowed). We expect both teams to prioritize their ground games in this one. In last week’s game against the Giants, the Eagles ran the ball nearly twice as much as they passed. While the 49ers’ run D will be far more formidable than the Giants, you can be sure Philly would like to establish the running game. The 49ers will be led by a rookie 3rd string quarterback in Brock Purdy, who has looked like anything but to this point. That said, the Niners are unlikely to ask Purdy to do too much in this one and are likely to lean on the extremely talented Christian McCaffrey on the ground and in the short passing game. We see time-consuming drives, conservative offenses, and salty defenses ruling the day in Philadelphia on Sunday. We think the total in this one is set about three points too high and we like the value in under 46.5. We’ll be playing this one with our friends at Bovada.
Prediction: Under 46.5
