The UFC returns home this weekend at the “Apex” in Las Vegas, Nevada, for UFC Vegas 68 (Fight Night 218). The main event features a re-do match-up between Derrick Lewis and Sergei Spivak, who were supposed to collide back in November 2022 until a last-minute illness wounded “The Black Beast.”  Originally, this event was scheduled for Seoul, South Korea, and much of the card reflects that… it’s filled with would-be local talent who will instead cross the Pacific Ocean and throw down in “Sin City.”

Here are our best three free picks from the main card of UFC Vegas 68…

Heavyweight: Marcin Tybura vs. Blagoy Ivanov

This likely won’t be the most exciting heavyweight bout, but we do like Marcin Tybura to win it somewhat handily. Blagoy Ivanov has fought just one time since May 2020, and he edged out a controversial split decision over Marcos Rogerio de Lima. Prior to that, he lost back-to-back fights to Augusto Sakai and Derrick Lewis. Ivanov’s best trait is his durability, as he can take some pretty hard clean shots and never even really get rocked, so this fight will most likely go the distance. We like Tybura, however, as I think he is the better wrestler and grappler, and he should be able to clinch Ivanov against the fence, make it boring and get the win. On the feet, Ivanov is there to be hit, while Tybura will be more active to edge out a decision. To be safe, we will take Tybura on the moneyline at BetOnline, but think about sprinkling some on Tybura by DEC (+140).

Prediction: Marcin Tybura (-134)

UFC Vegas 68 - Marcin Tybura vs. Blagoy Ivanov

Heavyweight: Derrick Lewis vs. Sergey Spivac

In the main event, Derrick Lewis and Sergey Spivac are getting rebooked after their November matchup was canceled on the day of the event. Back in November, we picked Lewis as the underdog, and we’ll be staying with that here. Lewis’ chin is no doubt a concern, but Spivac is not a power puncher like Tai Tuivasa or Sergei Pavlovich. Instead, he looks to take down his opponents and use his ground and pound to secure victory. However, we have seen Lewis use pure power and athleticism to get off his back and keep fights standing, so if he does get taken down, he’ll get back up.  Although Spivac is on a nice run, the level of competition hasn’t been very good, while the times he fought true KO artists, he got caught in the first round (see Tom Aspinall and Walt Harris). Give us Derrick Lewis at the Apex — where he’s undefeated — to catch Spivac early and help double our money at BetOnline.

Prediction:  Derrick Lewis (+200)

UFC Vegas 68 - Derrick Lewis vs. Sergey Spivac

Light Heavyweight: Da-Un Jung vs. Devin Clark

The co-headliner features a light heavyweight bout between Da-Un Jung and Devin Clark. Jung is 29 years old and he has a 4-1-1 record so far in the Octagon. He was unbeaten over his first five fights and was quickly climbing up the light heavyweight rankings before suffering a brutal knockout loss to Dustin Jacoby in his last fight.  The loss to Jacoby definitely hurt his stock, but he’s still a very talented fighter who is dangerous in the striking and grappling departments. As for Clark, he is 32 years old and has been struggling as of late, losing three of his last four fights overall. He’s been in the UFC since 2016 and has fought a high level of competition during that time, but he just hasn’t been able to put it all together and get that big win.  In addition, Clark’s durability is a concern as he’s been finished in nearly all of his losses. He’s a solid wrestler, but his inability to finish opponents and his prosperity to get finished is concerning. With that being said, we are going with Jung to win this fight and believe he will be able to finish Clark with strikes, so give us the heavy favorite to win by knockout (+120) at BetUS.

Prediction:  Da-Un Jung via TKO (+120)

UFC Vegas 68 - Da Un Jung vs. Devin Clark
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